Canalys has decided to include the tablets (e.g., the iPad) with
other computer sales when estimating market share. Because the iPad is
selling so well, this has given Apple a big boost in ranking.
Because of the iPad's inclusion, Canalys ranked Apple number three
during Q4 2010 (see PDF). That was the
big holiday quarter when Apple sold 7.33 million iPads. This pushed it
ahead of Dell, but it remained behind HP and Acer.
|
Q4 2010 |
| Year/Year Growth |
Units Sold (millions) |
Macs Sold (millions) |
iPads Sold (millions) |
| HP |
2.9% |
18.7 |
- |
- |
| Acer |
8.8% |
13.6 |
- |
- |
| Apple |
241.0% |
11.5 |
4.13 |
7.33 |
| Dell |
10.6% |
11.4 |
- |
- |
Canalys most
recent report shows that Apple dropped to number four spot, with
Dell moving ahead of it in rankings. Apple sold fewer iPads during the
quarter, and that reduced unit sales by several million.
|
Q1 2011 |
| Year/Year Growth |
Units Sold (millions) |
Macs Sold (millions) |
iPads Sold (millions) |
| HP |
-5.8% |
14.7 |
- |
- |
| Acer |
-6.5% |
11.3 |
- |
- |
| Dell |
2.8% |
10.0 |
- |
- |
| Apple |
187.9% |
8.2 |
3.76 |
4.69 |
Apple's problem with iPads wasn't low demand, but a limited supply.
It's suppliers simply couldn't make enough.
The website iSuppli reduced
its forecast of iPad sales for 2011 to 39.7 million. Out of that
estimate, we know that Apple has already
sold 4.7 million iPads. That leaves Apple projected to sell on
average 11.7 million per quarter.
The other import information we learn from both reports is that the
growth of Windows-based PCs has slowed compared to Apple. Growth at HP,
Acer, and Dell did worse each quarter. Only their overall size kept
them in the lead.
Apple, on the other hand, did outstanding regarding growth, both
with its Mac sales and with the addition of iPads pushing growth even
higher. Mac growth
Q4 2010 was up 23% from the year ago quarter - and 241% when you
include iPads. Mac growth Q1 2011 was up 28% from the year ago quarter,
and 187.9% when you include iPads.
This is rock star growth compared to the other big three.
With PC growth down, especially among the big three, and the iPad
boosting Apple's ranking, it won't be long until Apple becomes the
number one seller.
We can easily see that by the end of the year Apple will be in the
number two spot.
First, let's look at how poorly the PC crowd is growing. In Q4 2010,
HP grew 2.9% y/y, Acer 8.8%, and Dell 10.6%. This year has been worse.
HP grew 5.8% y/y, Acer 6.5%, and Dell 2.8%. For the US economy's sake,
we can only hope these companies turn this around, returning to
positive numbers. It would be optimistic to give 3% to 5% growth. That
puts HP at 19.3 million, Acer at 14, and Dell at 11.8 at the low end of
growth.
Apple, on the other hand, will grow a lot more. Apple has been
steadily growing Mac sales 23% to 33% for at least the last six
quarters. In Q4 2010, it sold 4.13 million Macs and 7.33 million iPads.
By the end of this year, Mac sales should reach 5.35 million, if they
continue to have at least 28% growth. If we add to this the average
projection of 11.7 million iPads, then we have a total of 17.1 million
for Q4 2011.
If we compare Apple in Q4 2011 to what we expect for growth from the
big three, Apple will be number two, beating out Acer, but not quite
big enough to get ahead of HP.
|
Q4 2011 (future
projection) |
| Year/Year Growth |
Units Sold (millions) |
Macs Sold (millions) |
iPads Sold (millions) |
| HP |
3.0% |
19.3 |
- |
- |
| Apple |
149.6% |
17.1 |
5.35 |
11.7 |
| Acer |
3.0% |
14.0 |
- |
- |
| Dell |
3.0% |
11.8 |
- |
- |
Two factors could throw this result off. If PC sales suddenly get a
kick start, but with a tough economy and high gas prices, it is hard to
see where the demand will come from. The flip side will be if iPads
demand exceeds 11.7 million per quarter.
It would only be reasonable that the 39.7 million estimated by
iSuppli will not be divided evenly. With holiday sales, the fourth
quarter is always the best for Apple. Apple has to sell 13.9 million
iPads to take over the number one spot.
Still, holiday sales may be good for everyone, so HP has a good
chance of keeping its number one spot this year. Acer would have to
surge ahead by 25% to keep up with Apple, and that just isn't likely to
happen.
The PC crowd with their mediocre tablets has a long way to go before
they catch up to Apple. In the meantime, Apple won't be slowing down to
let them catch up either. Even if Apple is not the number one selling
brand by the end of the year, it will be in 2012.
