There's a fascinating paradox afoot in the portable computer market
these days. Ergo, the two strongest sales performers are at opposite
ends of the price point spectrum - inexpensive PC netbooks and
ultraportable notebooks selling for as little as $199 and admittedly
pricey Apple notebooks starting at $999.
According to NPD data from late
2009, the average Apple notebook selling price was US$1,419, while
median Windows laptop sold for only US$519. Nevertheless Apple's
$1,199 13" MacBook
Pro was the best-selling notebook model overall, with three other
Apple laptops finishing in the top ten. The notebook line (MacBook,
Air, and Pro) exceeded 70 percent of Macintosh sales for the first time
ever last year. (Note that NPD data only measures online and retail
stores, not direct sales.)
Also according to NPD, at midyear 2009, nine out of ten dollars spent on
computers costing $1,000 or more went to Apple, and Mac revenue market
share in the "premium" price segment was 91 percent.
Meanwhile, netbooks enjoyed a 72% uptick in 2009 dollar sales over
2008, with 33.3 million units sold, while notebook sales in general
rose only 5% (including netbooks), according to a report by NPD
subsidiary DisplaySearch. For 2010, NPD/DisplaySearch projects the
notebook PC market growing 16%, with higher than average increases for
netbooks (which they call "mini-notes") and ultraportable notebooks
fueled by sub-$500 ASPs.
For a graphical analysis of the global notebook/netbook market, see
The Rise
of Netbooks on GigaOM.
The Midrange Notebook Exodus
Beleaguered by the recession, laptop users appear to be fleeing in
opposite directions - flight to quality on the one hand and to lowball
prices on the other. However, this may not be as contradictory as it
seems, since both polarities represent different sides of the value
equation, and either can reflect perceived "best value" depending upon
circumstances and needs.
Personally, I think Mac laptops provide the best value for my
circumstances and needs and tastes, which is why I'm typing this on a
MacBook, but I can freely acknowledge that in other contexts, a PC
netbook or laptop can be a perfectly rational and sensible choice and
provide good value for money spent, especially since the netbook
category is one that, as Steve Jobs put it, Apple doesn't choose to
serve.
I can conceive of many instances where my recommendation would be to
go with a non-Apple machine, especially for folks who simply can't
afford the price of entry to the Mac club, although I would also advise
considering a used or
refurbished Mac as a low-priced alternative.
There are times when you don't need premium quality. I consider
myself frugal (some would say cheap), and if I can get some item or
commodity at the dollar store that will do all I require of it, I'm
delighted to shop there, and I'm satisfied that I'm getting excellent
value for money spent.
I also happen to be charmed by the netbook form factor. I've so far
successfully resisted buying one, but conceptually they appeal to me
more than the iPad does, and it doesn't
hurt that most of them are cheaper than the entry-level iPad with its
minuscule 16 GB data capacity, lack of proper input support, and
poverty of I/O connectivity.
We'll see.
The Primary Netbook Deficiency
The main netbook deficiency, in my estimation, is unavailability of
officially kosher Mac OS X support. My daughter, a longtime Mac
aficionado, recently counseled a young high-school student friend to
buy a PC netbook, since that was what she could afford. Initially, my
daughter was impressed with Windows 7 on the mini-note, but her
enthusiasm has waned substantially with longer exposure.
She's well-equipped to evaluate, having made her living for a time
doing Windows XP telephone tech-support for a Microsoft subcontractor.
I suspect that a Hackintosh install (see resources below) is in the
offing for that particular netbook, although she did mention having
heard good reports about Puppy
Linux.
How the iPad will impact this equation remains to be seen, but iPad
sales will at the expense of some netbook volume.
Does the iPad represent a good value? Well, that's another movie.
Hackintosh Resources
