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There are some crazy rumors going around about iOS (formerly known
as the iPhone OS) and the future of Mac OS X. Ever since Apple
announced its agenda for the 2010 Worldwide Developer Conference
(WWDC), which included no Mac sessions and no Mac software awards,
panic mongers have been running around like Chicken
Little predicting that OS X is falling.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Steve Jobs himself confirmed it. Yet the rumor mill continues to
grind up facts and churn out nonsense.
The two rumors are that Apple is already planning to replace Mac OS
X with iOS, essentially killing off Macs the same way the Mac once
displaced the Apple II. The other is that the two operating systems
will become unified over time.
I won't say that these things won't ever happen, but they are not
going to take place in the short term. Future versions of OS X
will incorporate lessons Apple has learned from iOS, but Apple is not
going to phase out Mac OS X, because the Macintosh side of its
business remains profitable. Creating a "Mac" that won't run Mac apps
would kill its goose that has given golden eggs for so many years - and
that kind of goose you let die a natural death.
I can see iOS ideas coming into OS X soon, perhaps with Mac OS X
10.7. For instance, instead of launching to the Finder, which is based
on the aging desktop metaphor that Macs have used since 1984, it might
launch to a screen akin to that found on the iPhone and iPad. The
entire display would become a launcher, with no need to even show the
Dock.
At the same time, Apple could move ahead with simplifying document
storage. Where the Mac OS assumes the user understands a filing system,
iOS dispenses with that. Documents are just there. Apps written for OS
X 10.7 could work like iOS apps so users don't have to wonder where
their documents might have gone. Apple has already done this in
OS X with iTunes and iPhoto, and it's a logical progression to
apply it to other apps as well.
Running iOS Alongside OS X
Before the next version of OS X, I could see Apple creating an iOS
emulation mode for Macs, either as an application or as a virtualized
environment - much like users now run Linux or Windows via
virtualization and old timers (those of us using OS X 10.4.11 and
earlier on PowerPC Macs) use Classic Mode.
Apple has already done the grunt work of creating iOS emulators for
developers, but instead of being designed to emulate an iPhone, iPod
touch, or iPad, the virtualized iOS would be designed to take full
advantage of Mac hardware - bigger displays, different graphics
processors, multiple cores, lots of RAM, and loads of hard drive space.
Perhaps the Mail and Safari apps would share preferences with their
OS X counterparts, making it easy for users to choose one or the
other on the fly.
The iOS environment would be written for the x86 processors found in
modern Macs, allow for "universal" iOS apps that include ARM and x86
code, and have an ARM emulator for non-universal apps. With dual-core
CPUs and beyond, there's plenty of power for emulation. And thanks to
the iOS already supporting three different screen resolutions (the
original iPhone, the iPad, and now the iPhone 4 with its doubled
resolution), a lot of iOS apps should already support different screen
sizes.
How This Benefits Apple
Why would Apple consider adding an iOS environment to OS X? Two
reasons come to mind. The first is that it would create a new market
for iOS apps, and Apple keeps a tidy 30% commission on every app sold.
The second is that it would create a bridge to iOS devices for Mac
users. After all, if your Mac is already running iOS apps, why would
you consider any smartphone but an iPhone, any MP3 player other than
the iPod touch, or any other tablet than the iPad?
There's a synergy that could be at work here, and the inclusion of
an iOS mode in OS X could also make it easier for iPhone and iPad users
to choose a Mac as their next computer rather than yet another Windows
machine or a Linux box.
Over time, Mac users might find themselves using more and more iOS
apps and less Mac OS X programs, just as Classic Mode let longtime Mac
users migrate to OS X without abandoning familiar apps. At some
point in the future, it's conceivable that iOS could become the default
mode and "classic" OS X would be virtualized within iOS, letting
Mac users migrate to the new OS without abandoning the OS X apps
they need for productivity. (I can't see InDesign or Quark XPress as
iOS apps for a long time, if ever.)
The Golden Goose Times Five
Apple is the only one of the early personal computer companies (the
others are Tandy/Radio Shack, Commodore, and Atari) still making and
selling computers, because it knows how to nurture its golden geese.
The Apple II goose saw the company through from 1977 and into the early
Macintosh years, finally dying naturally in 1993 when the last Apple II
models were discontinued. (Apple even sold an Apple IIe card for
certain Macs starting in 1991, which helped facilitate migration to the
Macintosh. It was finally discontinued in 1995.)
The second golden goose is the Macintosh, which got a slow start,
eventually reached 10% of the PC market, nearly died in 1997, but
recovered and is now stronger than ever. Apple twice reinvented the
Mac's hardware, switching from Motorola 680x0 to PowerPC to Intel x86,
and it's OS once, replacing the Classic Mac OS with OS X. Along
the way it has maintained a good level of backward compatibility -
PowerPC Macs could emulate 680x0 CPUs, and OS X included a Classic
Mac OS environment up through version 10.4.11.
It's not inconceivable that Apple could make a transition to iOS for
Macs, although that would fundamentally change the nature of the
Macintosh (some argue that the switch from the Classic Mac OS to
OS X did the same thing). It's something that could happen
eventually, but I don't see this as some secret Apple goal. If it
happens, it will be a gradual process, and if iOS someday displaces
OS X, Mac OS X will be allowed to die a natural death.
Apple's third golden goose is the traditional iPod, which appears to
have reached its peak of popularity, but it should continue to provide
Apple with a solid revenue stream for years to come. After all, some
people don't need all the bells and whistles of iOS devices.
Goose number four is the iTunes Store, sired by the iPod. It begat
the App Store and now the iBooks store. Thanks to iTunes being
available to Mac and Windows users, there's a huge market for music,
videos, and more. This not only helps sales of iPods, it is a profit
center in its own right.
And then there were five, starting with the iPhone. iOS devices
leverage the iPod and iTunes technologies but add the power of a
computer. Despite competition from Microsoft and Android, the iPhone,
iPod touch, and iPad are the leading devices in their categories. And
even if Android someday has a bigger market share in the smartphone
and/or tablet markets, Apple will continue to profit from its
technology, just as it has always done in the past. With its profit
margins, Apple doesn't need to own a market to thrive.
Four of these five geese are alive and well today, and they will
continue to provide Apple with profits for years to come. If the iPod
or Macintosh dies off someday, it will only be because something better
has displaced them. I can't see Apple killing off either goose before
its time.
Dan Knight has been using Macs since 1986,
sold Macs for several years, supported them for many more years, and
has been publishing Low End Mac since April 1997. If you find Dan's articles helpful, please consider making a donation to his tip jar.
Links for the Day
Mac of the Day: Performa 630, introduced 1994.07.01. The first desktop Mac with an IDE hard drive could accept a TV or radio tuner.
