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Rumor has it we'll be seeing a lot of new Macs this week at the
Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) - perhaps as early as today. And
we'll be seeing iOS 6, probably learning a lot more about
OS X 10.8 Mountain Lion, and maybe even see the next generation
iPhone. But I want to focus on the Mac hardware side.
According to several websites, we can expect updates to the Mac Pro,
the iMac, the MacBook Air, and the MacBook Pro. The only model that
seems to be missing from the list is the Mac mini, which was last updated in
July 2011.
It's widely expected that all new Macs will have USB 3, which is 10x
as fast as USB 2.0. If that happens, it will be the first time Apple
has shipped Macs with the newer, much faster protocol.
OS X 10.8 Mountain Lion
I hope Apple will not release Mountain Lion this week, but will
offer it as a free upgrade for all new Macs sold after today. I think
the number of changes going to Mountain Lion are off-putting to a lot
of pro users, and Apple would be best off serving that market with Lion
now - and Mountain Lion in 2-3 months.
The Mid 2012 Mac Pro
Most of the excitement surrounds the Mac Pro, which hasn't had a
refresh since July 2010 -
nearly two years ago. It is the only current Mac without Thunderbolt.
It is also Apple's powerhouse Mac with 4-12 processing cores, three
available PCIe expansion slots, four SATA busses, lots of drive bays, a
monstrous power supply, and a well ventilated case design that goes
back to the first Power Mac
G5 (June 2003).
I'm not too concerned about the
number of CPUs and cores or the graphics options. Based on history, we
can expect the Mac Pro to offer some extremely powerful
state-of-the-art processors and video cards. And the entry-level
version will probably be at least a match for the "better" version of
the 27" iPad.
No, I'm more interested in the expansion options: ports, drives
bays, PCIe slots, and so forth. The current Mac Pro is a beast at 20"
high, 18.7" deep, 8.1" wide, and 40 lb. One promise of Thunderbolt is
that it can replace PCIe expansion slots. That doesn't mean that Apple
won't give the new Mac Pro any slots, only that it may no longer see
the need to include so many. I'd say it's possible that Apple could
remove one PCIe slot thanks to Thunderbolt.
Speaking of which, I expect no less than two Thunderbolt ports, and
perhaps 3-4, which will help drive the market for Thunderbolt
accessories. Maybe it will even support the new optical Thunderbolt
port in addition to copper wiring.
The biggest change in hardware over the past two years has to do
with hard drives and SSDs. Capacity of 3.5" hard drives has
skyrocketed, the speed of some 2.5" drives rival better 3.5" drives,
and SSDs have finally become affordable. The one thing you can count on
is Apple moving the Mac Pro from 3 Gb/s SATA Revision 2 to the
6 Gb/s SATA Revision 3 bus used in almost all current Macs. (For
the record, there does not appear to be an even faster SATA Revision 4
on the horizon.)
My best guess is that the 2012 Mac Pro will have at least two SSD
slots (using the same modules as the MacBook Air), two 2.5" hard drive
bays, two 3.5" drive bays, and two 5.25" optical drive bays. With less
3.5" bays than previous models and one less PCIe slot, Apple could make
the Mac Pro a bit smaller. Also, SSDs and 2.5" drives draw less power
than 3.5" drives, so Apple might be able to get by with a power supply
with a bit less capacity, which would also reduce size, weight, and
heat buildup.
I expect a whole new design for the Mac Pro, which is overdue. It
will probably still be a tower design, but maybe 2-3" shorter. It would
be really nice if Apple could offer an entry-level model in the $1,700
to $1,800 range, something it hasn't offered in a pro desktop since the
Power Mac G4 era. (Starting with the G5, $2,000 became the entry level
price.)
The Mid 2012 iMac
I expect incremental updates here: Faster CPUs, bigger hard drives,
and USB 3. Maybe Apple will move the iMac to 2.5" hard drives, as their
speed and capacity are nowadays perfectly suited to the consumer market
that the iMac targets. That said, I see the 27" version retaining a
3.5" drive bay for really high capacity drives.
The Mid 2012 MacBook Air
Count on USB 3 and slightly faster processors. Much as many of us
would love to see Apple ditch the 64 GB entry-level SSD, it may stick
around as the only way to keep the lowest-cost MacBook Air at the $999
mark.
I expect to see the first 15.4" MacBook Air, perhaps a little
thicker than the 13.3" model and with amazing battery life. I think a
1920 x 1080 display would be just perfect here, absolutely perfect for
1080 HD video. In some ways, the big screen, great battery life, and
anticipated processing speed will encroach on the 15" MacBook Pro.
The Mid 2012 MacBook Pro
I don't expect the 13", 15", or 17" MacBook Pro to go away. I don't
expect them to lose their built-in optical drives. I do expect a bit
more processing power, SSD support, and optional high resolution
("Retina") displays. For the pro market, it's just too important to be
able to burn a CD or DVD for a client or work from a disc a client
supplies without having to carry a separate SuperDrive.
I would like to see the 13" MacBook Pro offer the same 1440 x 900
screen resolution as the 13" MacBook Air, up from the 1280 x 800 that
all 13" MacBooks and MacBook Pros have offered heretofore. At 15", a
1920 x 1080 display would make perfect sense, and the 17" may go a step
beyond that. I believe there is still a strong enough market for such a
big screen on a notebook, especially at Apple's profit margin.
The Next Mac mini
The Mac mini is a perpetual straggler with hardware specs a
generation or two behind the current iMacs and MacBook Pros. Don't
expect an updated Mac mini until Fall 2012, and then probably mostly a
modest speed bump plus the addition of USB 3.
Dan Knight has been using Macs since 1986,
sold Macs for several years, supported them for many more years, and
has been publishing Low End Mac since April 1997. If you find Dan's articles helpful, please consider making a donation to his tip jar.
Links for the Day
Mac of the Day: Performa 630, introduced 1994.07.01. The first desktop Mac with an IDE hard drive could accept a TV or radio tuner.
I'm not too concerned about the
number of CPUs and cores or the graphics options. Based on history, we
can expect the Mac Pro to offer some extremely powerful
state-of-the-art processors and video cards. And the entry-level
version will probably be at least a match for the "better" version of
the 27" iPad.